North Korea, Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy Hawks
It is the height of irresponsibility for the United States to undermine its ability to make credible commitments by reneging on the terms of international agreements it negotiated and agreed to abide by. Moreover, it is extremely damaging to the U.S.’s national security to ignore “facts on the ground” in favor of scoring short-term political victories. The recent summit with North Korea and multiple reports on Iran’s compliance highlight the significance of these two factors in the current administration’s foreign policy, casting shadows on the future of U.S. national security and interests in the Middle East and North Korea.
Because most Americans are not interested in international relations, the politics of perception dominates the domestic discussion of these issues. Many believe that Iran cannot be trusted to not cheat on the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) due to Republican hawks insisting that this is the case. Even those who disagree with Trump’s foreign policy as a general principle rarely delve in to the details. For example, in the lead up to the North Korea summit in Hanoi, journalists across a wide variety of media platforms touted Trump’s progress with North Korea. When it comes to North Korea‘s nuclear program, however, intelligence reports disagree.
The President faces few constraints on his power to formulate foreign policy. This is why it is important to have a President that tells the truth to the U.S. public and will lead the nation in the international arena based on the facts as they are, not on what he wants them to be.
Iran
A recent report by the IAEA confirmed that Iran is still complying with rolex datejust rolex calibre 2836 2813 m126233 0026 uomo automatico the Iran agreement (JCPOA) despite the U.S. withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions. This follows the U.S. intelligence community assessment in January 2019, which also found that “Iran is not currently working to develop its nuclear capabilities and remains compliant with the Iran nuclear deal.” If the U.S. continues to force Europe and other countries to uphold U.S. sanctions, it is uncertain how long Iran will remain committed to the deal. Most analysts agree that Iran would only need one or two years to develop nuclear weapons.
North Korea
Trump has successfully framed his policy with North Korea as a big win precisely because so few, including the media and other elites, know much about “the hermit kingdom.” Almost any policy is preferable to the bellicosity of Trump’s initial approach towards North Korea. It is dangerous, however, to turn a blind eye to the fact North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continues to make substantive advancements despite Kim Jong-un‘s vague commitment to denuclearization. U.S. intelligence agencies have repeatedly reported that North Korea has continued and likely increased nuclear production. Ignoring these warnings, Trump has conceded to North Korea cessation of our joint military exercises with South Korea. Concerned Pentagon officials have declared that these exercises are critical “in maintaining military readiness and learning to work with allies.”
It was a relief that the second summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un ended without a deal. Yet Trump still gave Kim Jong-un two big wins. First, the aforementioned cessation of large-scale joint military exercises. Second, Trump embarrassed the Presidency and the U.S. as a whole by agreeing with Kim Jong-un’s claim that he was unaware of the brutal treatment of Otto Warmbier, an American college student, which led to his death.
The recent skirmish between India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers, further highlights the dangers of nuclear weapons in the global system. It is more important than ever to have a U.S. President who bases his national security and foreign policy on intelligence gathering and the true conditions “on the ground” as detailed by his military commanders. Instead, we live in an international environment where dictators like Kim, Putin, Erdogan, and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad bin Salman are enabled to violate international law as long as they maintain a good personal relationship with Trump.