What is Trump Planning for Venezuela?
On Thursday, March 26, the Trump administration charged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, for drug trafficking. It is a highly unusual and aggressive move against a head of state. The State Department justified the charge by reiterating the U.S., along with many other Western countries, does not recognize the legitimacy of Maduro as Venezuela’s President. The fact remains, however, that Maduro is the only one who wields political power in Venezuela.
So what does this action by the Trump administration mean for U.S. interests in Venezuela? Some foreign policy experts have expressed concerned that this might signal that the United States is considering some sort of military intervention to remove Maduro from power. This is very unlikely as Trump has repeatedly shown his reluctance to initiate military clashes that would not provide an immediate victory. Blocking an easy win for regime change, Russia and China have repeatedly stated that they would defend Venezuela from a military invasion.
The reason for this U.S. move towards Maduro is simple — votes. The wealthy elites and oppositional leaders who have fled Venezuela during the Chávez and Maduro years have become an important lobbying constituency in Florida. Bernie Sanders learned the hard way that angering the Cubans in Florida was a sure path to defeat. In a state that often decides elections by hundreds of thousands of votes, Trump is ensuring he has the support of the Venezuelan voting block.
It is unfortunate that this has nothing to do with the plight of the Venezuelan people themselves. But that is often the case with U.S. foreign policy towards Latin American countries. More tragedy is likely to unfold in the days ahead as the coronavirus pandemic takes hold in Venezuela and its already failing hospitals. One thing unlikely to be on the table soon is an American military presence in the country.
Do you have any specifics on the drug charges? Are they unfounded? I covered some evidence of Venezuelan government drug trafficking in my marijuana research.